Publications

Under review

Abel, R., C. W. Boening, R. J. Greatbatch, H. T. Hewitt, M. J. Roberts, 2016: Surface momentum flux parameterization to include mechanical feedback on the atmosphere in uncoupled ocean models. GRL, under revision.

Nakamura, J., S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, N. Henderson, K. A. Emanuel, A. Kumar, T. E. LaRow, H. Murakami, M. J. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. F. Wehner, M. Zhao, 2016: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates. J. Geophys. Res., submitted 25th Oct 2016. 

Roberts, M. J., and coauthors: The benefits of high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale. Submitted to BAMS 6th Oct 2016.

 

Peer-reviewed

2017

Ogata, T., S.J. Johnson, R. Schiemann, M.-E. Demory, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa: The resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon and its Inter-Model Comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM. Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3517-5.

Schiemann, R, M.-E. Demory, L.C. Shaffrey, J. Strachan, P.L. Vidale, M.S. Mizielinski, M.J. Roberts, M. Matsueda, M.F. Wehner, T. Jung (2017): The resolution sensitivity of northern hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models. J. Clim. 30, 337-358. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1

Walters, D. et al. (2017): The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1 configurations. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 1487-1520 doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017.

2016

Fang, Y., P. Wu, M.S. Mizielinski, M.J. Roberts, T. Wu, B. Li, P.L. Vidale and R. Schiemann (2016): High-resolution simulation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in Met Office Unified Model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. DOI:10.1002/qj.2927

Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J. J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J. S. (2016): High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185-4208

Hewitt, H. T., M. J. Roberts, P. Hyder, S. E. Belcher, R. Bourdalie-Badie, D. Copsey, A. Coward, C. Guiavarch, C. Harris, R. Hill, J. Hirschi, G. Madec, M. Mizielinski, E. Neininger, A. New, J. Rae, J.-C. Rioual, B. Sinha, D. Storkey, A. Shelly, L. Thorpe, and R. A. Wood (2016): The impact of resolving the Rossby radius at mid-latitudes in the ocean: results from a high-resolution version of the Met Office GC2 coupled model. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3655-3670. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016

Johnson, S. J., Levine, R. C., Turner, A. G., Martin, G. M., Woolnough, S. J., Schiemann, R., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Demory, M.-E. and Strachan, J. (2016) The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM. Climate Dynamics, 46 (3-4). pp. 807-831. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2614-1

Kendon, E. J., Ban, N., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C., Evans, J. P., Fosser, G., and Wilkinson, J. M., 2016. Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change? Bull. Am. Met. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1

Roberts, M. J., H. T. Hewitt, P. Hyder, D. Ferreira, S. A. Josey, M. Mizielinski, and A. Shelly, 2016: Impact of ocean resolution on coupled air-sea fluxes and large-scale climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL070559. 

Tous, M., Zappa, G., Romero, R., Shaffrey, L. and Vidale, P. L. (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1913-1924 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Vannière, B., Czaja, A., Dacre, H., Woollings, T. and Parfitt, R., 2016. A potential vorticity signature for the cold sector of winter extratropical cyclones. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 432–442. doi: 10.1002/qj.2662

Vellinga, M., Roberts, M., Vidale, P. L., Mizielinski, M. S., Demory, M.-E., Schiemann, R., Strachan, J. and Bain, C.(2016) Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 326-333. doi: 10.1002/2015GL066690

Zhang, L., P. Wu, T. Zhou, M. Roberts, R. Schiemann, 2016: Added value of high resolution models in simulating global precipitation characteristics. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17, 646-657, doi:10.1002/asl.715.

2015

Baker, A. J., Sodemann, H., Baldini, J. U. L., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Johnson, K. R., van Hunen, J., and Zhang, P., 2015. Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120, 5850–5862. doi: 10.1002/2014JD022919

Birch, C., M. Roberts, L. Garcia-Carreras, D. Ackerley, M. Reeder, A. Lock and R. Schiemann (2015): Sea breeze dynamics and convection initiation: the influence of convective parameterisation in weather and climate model biases. J. Clim, 28, 8093-8108. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00850.1

Camp, J., M. Roberts, C. MacLachlan , E. Wallace, L. Hermanson, A. Brookshaw, A. Arribas, A. Scaife (2015): Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office high resolution seasonal forecast system. QJRMS. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2516

Daloz, A. S., S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, C.M. Patricola, M. J. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao, 2015. Cluster analysis of explicitly and downscaled simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Clim., 28, 1333-1361, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00646.1

Johnson, S., Levine, R., Turner, A., Martin, G., Woolnough, S., Schiemann, R., Mizielinski, M., Roberts, M., Vidale, P. L., Demory, M.-E. and Strachan, J. (2015) The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM. Climate Dynamics 46, 807-831. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2614-1

Liu, C., Allan, R. P., Berrisford, P., Mayer, M. , Hyder , P. , Loeb, N. , Smith, D. , Vidale, P.-L. and Edwards, J. M. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120 (18). pp. 9374-9389. doi: 10.1002/2015JD023264

Roberts, M. J., P. L. Vidale, M. Mizielinski, M.-E. Demory, R. Schiemann, J. Strachan, K. Hodges, J. Camp, R. Bell, 2014: Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models. J. Clim. 28, 574-596, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00131.1.

Shaevitz, D. A. , S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, A. Kumar, T. E. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, H. Murakami, K. Reed, M. J. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. F. Wehner, M. Zhao, and N. Henderson, 2015. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models of the present climate. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 6, 1154–1172, doi: 10.1002/2014MS000372

Tous, M., G. Zappa, R. Romero, L. Shaffrey, P. L. Vidale (2015) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Walsh, K. J. E. , S. J. Camargo, G. A. Vecchi. A. S. Daloz, J. Elsner, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, Y.-K. Lim, M. J. Roberts, C. Patricola, E. Scoccimarro, A. H. Sobel, S. Strazzo, G. Villarini, M. Wehner, M. Zhao, J. Kossin, T. LaRow, K. Oouchi, S. Schubert, H. Wang, J. Bacmeister, P. Chang, F. Chauvin, C. Jablonowski, H. Murakami, T. Ose, K. A. Reed, R. Saravanan, Y. Yamada, C. M. Zarzycki, P. L. Vidale, J. A. Jonas, and N. Henderson, 2015. Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 6, 997-1017, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1

Williams, K. D., Harris, C. M., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Camp, J., Comer, R. E., Copsey, D., Fereday, D., Graham, T., Hill, R., Hinton, T., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Masato, G., Milton, S. F., Roberts, M. J., Rowell, D. P., Sanchez, C., Shelly, A., Sinha, B., Walters, D. N., West, A., Woollings, T., and Xavier, P. K. (2015): The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509-1524, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015

2014

Allan, R. P., C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, D. Smith, and P. L. Vidale, 2014: Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5588-5597, doi: 10.1002/2014GL060962.

Bell, R., K. Hodges, P. L. Vidale, J. Strachan, M. Roberts, 2014: Simulation of the global ENSO-tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J. Clim., doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00559.1

Demory, M.-E., P. L. Vidale, M. J. Roberts, P. Berrisford, J. Strachan, R. Schiemann, M. S. Mizielinski, 2014: The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle. Clim. Dyn., 42, 2201-2225, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1924-4

Kendon, E. J., N. M. Roberts, H. J. Fowler, M. J. Roberts, S. C. Chan, C. A. Senior, 2014: Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nature Climate Change, 4, 570-576, doi:10.1038/nclimate2258

Mizielinski, M. S., M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, R. Schiemann, M.-E. Demory, J. Strachan, T. Edwards, A. Stephens, B. N. Lawrence, M. Pritchard, P. Chiu, A. Iwi, J. Churchill, C. del Cano Novales, J. Kettleborough, W. Roseblade, P. Selwood, M. Foster, M. Glover, A. Malcolm, 2014: High resolution global climate modelling; the UPSCALE project, a large simulation campaign. Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1629-1640, doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-1629-2014

Schiemann, R., Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L., 2014: The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1997-0

Walters, D. N., K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan , J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, P. L. Vidale, 2014:The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 4.0 and JULES Global Land 4.0 configurations. Geosci. Mod. Dev., 7, 361-386, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014

2013

Bell, R., J. Strachan, P. L. Vidale, K. Hodges and M. Roberts, 2013: Response of tropical cyclones to climate change in a global high resolution coupled general ciruclation model. J. Clim., 26, 7966–7980, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00749.1

Berckmans, J., T. Woollings, M.-E. Demory, P. L. Vidale and M. J. Roberts, 2013: Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 14, 34–40, doi: 10.1002/asl2.412

Chan, S. C., E. J. Kendon, H. J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, C. A. T. Ferro, D. B. Stephenson, 2013: Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation? Clim. Dyn., 41, 1475-1495, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9

Dawson, A., A. J. Matthews, D. P. Stevens, M. J. Roberts and P. L. Vidale, 2013:Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models. Climate Dynamics, 41, 1439-1452, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1518-6

Lloyd-Hughes, B., L. C. Shaffrey, P. L. Vidale, N. W. Arnell, 2013: An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (8), 2024-2035, doi: 10.1002/joc.3570

Strachan, J., P. L. Vidale, K. Hodges, M. J. Roberts and M.-E. Demory, 2013: Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution. Journal of Climate, 26 (1), 133-152, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00012.1

2012

Custodio, M. d. S., R. P. Rocha, P. L. Vidale, 2012: Analysis of precipitation climatology simulated by high resolution coupled global models over the South America. Hydrological Research Letters, 6, 92-97.

Hawkins, E. and P. L. Vidale, 2012: Meteorology: Counting the coming storms. Nature Climate Change, 2 (8), 574-575, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1639

Holloway, C. E., S. J. Woolnough, G. M. S. Lister, 2012: The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1342-1369, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0227.1

Kendon, E. J., N. M. Roberts, C. A. Senior, M. J. Roberts, 2012: Realism of rainfall in a very high resolution regional climate model, Journal of Climate, 25 (17), 5791-5806, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00562.1

2011

Allan, R. P., M. J. Woodage, S. F. Milton, M. E. Brooks, J. M. Haywood, 2011: Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May-July. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1179-1192, doi: 10.1002/qj.717

Balan Sarojini, B., J. M. Gregory, R. Tailleux, G. R. Bigg, A. T. Blaker, D. R. Cameron, N. R. Edwards, A. P. Megann, L. C. Shaffrey, B. Sinha, 2011: High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Ocean Sciences, 7, 471-486, doi: 10.5194/os-7-471-2011

Catto, J., L. C. Shaffrey and K. I. Hodges, 2011: Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate in the HiGEM High Resolution Climate Model, Journal of Climate, 24, 5336-5352, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1

Diro, G., T. Toniazzo and L. C. Shaffrey, 2011: Ethiopian Rainfall in Climate Models. In: African climate and climate change: physical, social and political perspectives, 43, 51-69. New York, Springer.

Lee, M.-M., A. J. George Nurser, I. Stevens and J.-B. Sallée, 2011: Subduction over the southern Indian Ocean in a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model, Journal of Climate, 24, 3830-3849, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3888.1

Martin, G. M., N. Bellouin, W. J. Collins, I. D. Culverwell, P. R. Halloran, S. C. Hardiman, T. J. Hinton, C. D. Jones, R. E. McDonald, A. J. McLaren, F. M. O'Connor, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodriguez, S. Woodward, M. J. Best, M. E. Brooks, A. R. Brown, N. Butchart, C. Dearden, S. H. Derbyshire, I. Dharssi, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, N. Gedney, L. J. Gray, H. T. Hewitt, M. Hobson, M. R. Huddleston, J. Hughes, S. Ineson, W. J. Ingram, P. M. James, T. C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, C. P. Jones, M. M. Joshi, A. B. Keen, S. Liddicoat, A. P. Lock, A. V. Maidens, J. C. Manners, S. F. Milton, J. G. L. Rae, J. K. Ridley, A. Sellar, C. A. Senior, I. J. Totterdell, A. Verhoef, P. L. Vidale, A. Wiltshire, 2011: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 4 (3), 723-757, doi: 10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011

Scaife, A. A., D. Copsey, C. Gordon, C. Harris, T. Hinton, S.J. Keeley, A. O'Neill, M. Roberts and K. Williams, 2011: Improved Atlantic Blocking in a Climate Model.Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23703, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049573

Walters, D. N., M. J. Best, A. C. Bushell, D. Copsey, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, C. M. Harris, A. P. Lock, J. C. Manners, C. J. Morcrette, M. J. Roberts, R. A. Stratton, S. Webster, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, I. A. Boutle, P. D. Earnshaw, P. G. Hill, C. MacLachlan, G. M. Martin, W. Moufouma-Okia, M. D. Palmer, J. C. Petch, G. G. Rooney, A. A. Scaife and K. D. Williams, 2011: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 919-941, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011

2010

Catto, J., L. C. Shaffrey and K. I. Hodges, 2010: Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? Journal of Climate, 23, 1621-1635, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1

Dawson, A., A. J. Matthews, D. P. Stevens., 2010: Rossby wave dynamics of the North Pacific extra-tropical response to El Niño: importance of the basic state in coupled GCMs. Climate Dynamics, 37, 391-405.

Rickard, G. J., M. J. Roberts, M. J. M. Williams, A. Dunn, M. H. Smith, 2010: Mean circulation and hydrography in the Ross Sea sector, Southern Ocean: representation in numerical models. Antarctic Science, 22 (5), 533-558.

Sherwood, S. C., W. Ingram, Y. Tsushima, M. Satoh, M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, P. A. O'Gorman, 2010: Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D09104, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012585

Woodage, M. J., A. Slingo, S. Woodward, R. E. Comer, 2010: U.K. HiGEM: Simulations of Desert Dust and Biomass Burning Aerosols with a High-Resolution Atmospheric GCM. Journal of Climate, 23, 1636-–1659, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2994.1

Woollings, T., 2010: Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 368, 3733-3756.

2009

Challinor, A., T. Osborne, A. Morse, L. Shaffrey, T. Wheeler, H. Weller and P. L. Vidale, 2009: Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. B. Amer. Met. Soc., 90, 836-848.

Roberts, M. J., A. Clayton, M.-E. Demory, J. Donners, P. L. Vidale, W. Norton, L. Shaffrey, D. P. Stevens, I. Stevens, R. A. Wood and J. Slingo, 2009: Impact of resolution on the tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. J. Climate, 22, 2541-2556, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1

Shaffrey, L. C., I. Stevens, W. Norton, M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, J. D. Harle, A. Jrrar, D. P. Stevens, M. J. Woodage, M.-E. Demory, J. Donners, D. B. Clark, A. Clayton, J. W. Cole, S. S. Wilson, W. M. Connolley, T. M. Davies, A. M. Iwi, T. C. Johns, J. C. King, A. L. New, J. M. Slingo, A. Slingo, L. Steenman-Clark and G. M. Martin, 2009: U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model - Model Description and Basic Evaluation. Journal of Climate, 22 (8), 1861-1896, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2508.1

Slingo, J., K. Bates, N. Nikiforakis, M. Piggott, M. Roberts, L. Shaffrey, I. Stevens, P. L. Vidale and H. Weller, 2009: Developing the next generation climate system models: Challenges and achievements. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 367, 815-831, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0207

Yang, G.-Y., J. Slingo, B. Hoskins, 2009: Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves in High-Resolution Hadley Centre Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 22, 1897-1919, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2630.1

2004

Roberts, M. J., H. Banks, N. Gedney, J. Gregory, R. Hill, S. Mullerworth, A. Pardaens, G. Rickard, R. Thorpe, R. Wood, 2004: Impact of an eddy-permitting ocean resolution on control and climate change simulations with a global coupled GCM. Journal of Climate, 17, 3-20.

 

Reports and articles

Shaffrey, L., L. Steenman-Clark, G. Lister, D. Stevens, J. Beech-Brandt, T. Edwards, 2010: HiGEM Decadal Predictions. Final Cray Centre of Excellence Report

Vidale, P. L., M. Roberts, K. Hodges, J. Strachan, M.-E. Demory and J. Slingo, 2010: Tropical Cyclones in a hieararchy of climate models of increasing resolution.In: Charabi, Y. (ed.) Indian ocean tropical cyclones and climate change. Earth and environmental science, 1, 9-14, Springer, doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-3109-9_2

High Resolution Climate Modelling and the Reinsurance Industry, 2010: Economic Valuation Report produced for NERC by DTZ

Roberts, M. J., J. Donners, J. Harle, and I. Stevens, 2008: Impact of relative atmosphere-ocean resolution on coupled climate models. CLIVAR Exchanges, 44, International CLIVAR Project Office, Southampton, United Kingdom, 8-11.

Strachan J. and Willis Analytics, 2007: The use of high-resolution global climate models for climate risk assessment. Catastrophe Modelling Forum, New York City, Extended Abstract (available from www.willisresearchnetwork.com)